sensitivity analysis
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A Targeted Learning Framework for Estimating Restricted Mean Survival Time Difference using Pseudo-observations
A targeted learning (TL) framework is developed to estimate the difference in the restricted mean survival time (RMST) for a clinical trial with time-to-event outcomes. The approach starts by defining the target estimand as the RMST difference between investigational and control treatments. Next, an efficient estimation method is introduced: a targeted minimum loss estimator (TMLE) utilizing pseudo-observations. Moreover, a version of the copy reference (CR) approach is developed to perform a sensitivity analysis for right-censoring. The proposed TL framework is demonstrated using a real data application.
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Gradient-based Active Learning with Gaussian Processes for Global Sensitivity Analysis
Lambert, Guerlain, Helbert, Céline, Lauvernet, Claire
Global sensitivity analysis of complex numerical simulators is often limited by the small number of model evaluations that can be afforded. In such settings, surrogate models built from a limited set of simulations can substantially reduce the computational burden, provided that the design of computer experiments is enriched efficiently. In this context, we propose an active learning approach that, for a fixed evaluation budget, targets the most informative regions of the input space to improve sensitivity analysis accuracy. More specifically, our method builds on recent advances in active learning for sensitivity analysis (Sobol' indices and derivative-based global sensitivity measures, DGSM) that exploit derivatives obtained from a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate. By leveraging the joint posterior distribution of the GP gradient, we develop acquisition functions that better account for correlations between partial derivatives and their impact on the response surface, leading to a more comprehensive and robust methodology than existing DGSM-oriented criteria. The proposed approach is first compared to state-of-the-art methods on standard benchmark functions, and is then applied to a real environmental model of pesticide transfers.
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Automatic debiased machine learning and sensitivity analysis for sample selection models
Bjelac, Jakob, Chernozhukov, Victor, Klotz, Phil-Adrian, Kueck, Jannis, Schmitz, Theresa M. A.
In this paper, we extend the Riesz representation framework to causal inference under sample selection, where both treatment assignment and outcome observability are non-random. Formulating the problem in terms of a Riesz representer enables stable estimation and a transparent decomposition of omitted variable bias into three interpretable components: a data-identified scale factor, outcome confounding strength, and selection confounding strength. For estimation, we employ the ForestRiesz estimator, which accounts for selective outcome observability while avoiding the instability associated with direct propensity score inversion. We assess finite-sample performance through a simulation study and show that conventional double machine learning approaches can be highly sensitive to tuning parameters due to their reliance on inverse probability weighting, whereas the ForestRiesz estimator delivers more stable performance by leveraging automatic debiased machine learning. In an empirical application to the gender wage gap in the U.S., we find that our ForestRiesz approach yields larger treatment effect estimates than a standard double machine learning approach, suggesting that ignoring sample selection leads to an underestimation of the gender wage gap. Sensitivity analysis indicates that implausibly strong unobserved confounding would be required to overturn our results. Overall, our approach provides a unified, robust, and computationally attractive framework for causal inference under sample selection.
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The Fragility of Fairness: Causal Sensitivity Analysis for Fair Machine Learning
Fairness metrics are a core tool in the fair machine learning literature (FairML),used to determine that ML models are, in some sense, "fair." Real-world data,however, are typically plagued by various measurement biases and other violatedassumptions, which can render fairness assessments meaningless. We adapt toolsfrom causal sensitivity analysis to the FairML context, providing a general frame-work which (1) accommodates effectively any combination of fairness metric andbias that can be posed in the "oblivious setting"; (2) allows researchers to inves-tigate combinations of biases, resulting in non-linear sensitivity; and (3) enablesflexible encoding of domain-specific constraints and assumptions. Employing thisframework, we analyze the sensitivity of the most common parity metrics under 3varieties of classifier across 14 canonical fairness datasets. Our analysis reveals thestriking fragility of fairness assessments to even minor dataset biases. We show thatcausal sensitivity analysis provides a powerful and necessary toolkit for gaugingthe informativeness of parity metric evaluations.